State of the Met's Farm

After an off- season that decimated the Met's farm system the organization is looking at a crop of prospects in 2008 that is among the weakest in baseball. Outside of Fernando Martinez the Mets did not have one prospect in Baseball America's top 100, and not one on the fringe either. Instead the Met's now lack depth in the upper levels of their system at every position, but most notably in their starting pitching. Outside of Mike Pelfrey, who technically is not a prospect, their is not one other starting pitcher in the Met's system that figures to contribute at all in 2008 or in 2009. Martinez hopes to be in New York at some point in 2008, and even though he is the top left field prospect in all of baseball he should not be anywhere near Queens this year. Martinez is also the only position player above AA in the Met's system, that projects to be a major league starter down the road. Relief pitchers, however, seem to be the position of strength for the Mets right now. Eddie Kunz seems to be on the fast track to the majors, despite an inconsistent first year in which he posted a 6.75 ERA for the Brooklyn Cyclones. The Mets, as well as Baseball America who rank him as the Met's number two prospect, see him as the potential successor to Billy Wagner in the closer's role. Along with Kunz the Mets have Joe Smith, who will most likely start in AAA, and Robert Parnell, he is most likely a middle reliever at this point, who will begin in AA and probably see some time in New Orleans before the end of the season. Basically the success of the Mets organization rides on the shoulders of Mike Pelfrey and Fernando Martinez.

Mike Pelfrey was touted as the 20th best prospect last year by Baseball America, and fittingly had a dominant spring and won the fifth starter's spot in a landslide. Then it all fell apart. Pelfrey struggled immensely in two stints with the Mets last year, as he struggled to translate his spring success into victories in the regular season. Pelfrey pitched 72.2 IP last year. He faced 154 RHB and 131 LHB, so almost an equal amount, but LHB had an OPS of .906 against him while RHB posted a very modest .746 OPS against him. Even worse Pelfrey gave up 6 HR last year, but 5 of them to LHB. Part of his difficulty against LHB can certainly be attributed to the fact that four of the best hitters in the NL East are either left handed or bat left handed against RHP, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Chipper Jones, and Jimmy Rollins. However four batters do not constitute a nearly .200 difference in OPS. Plain and simple Pelfrey was atrocious against lefties, and if he wants to have success as a major league starter he needs to fix that soon.

If Pelfrey doesn't pan out the Met's have a real problem on their hands because they have no stand- out starting pitchers after him. Jon Niese has progressed nicely through the system and will probably be in AA this year, but he projects as a back of the rotation starter at best. Recently converted reliever to starter Brant Rustich may also begin the year in AA, after he had a strong rookie year as a reliver pitching 22 IP between Kingsport and Brooklyn. Rustich is interesting, because his draft stock fell after injuries late in his college career, but before that he projected to be a first round pick. Baseball America is very high on him as well, and they think he has the stuff to be starter, but feel he is better suited as a reliever. The Mets managed to get some nice arms out of high school in last year's draft in Nathan Vineyard and Scott Moviel, but both are a while away and don't figure to contribute to the Mets for at least the next three years.

Overall the system is very thin, and while there are some strong latin prospects in the low minors, the Mets need to have a strong draft this June to replenish their system.