Prospects

In a potential deal for Johan Santana the Mets could send any of the following eight players to the Twins. In an attempt to determine who of these players have the best trade and organizational value I will evaluate each one of them separately.

First we have the five "minor leaguers"

Fernando Martinez: The top prospect in the Mets organization is a product of both his tremendous upside, as well as his relative success at each level he has played at. At only 18 he was a staple in the AA Binghampton Mets lineup as predominantly a LF. While he is a capable defender, at one point he was considered a CF prospect, he is defined by his ability to hit the ball, especially for an 18 year old. He has a quick, powerful swing from the left side that demonstrates power to all fields. Despite his natural tools he did struggle at AA, batting .271, with a .336 OBP, and only slugging .377. In general his swing tends to have a bit of an "uppercut," which will hamper his ability to hit for average as his build resembles more of a line drive hitter than a Prince Fielder type power hitter. If he is still on the Mets next year he will most likely begin the year in AA Binghampton and probably advance to AAA New Orleans at some point during the season. Martinez has had some injury struggles, but if he reaches his potential he is probably a .290 hitter with 30+ HR power and 120 RBI ability, ETA- Mid 2009.

Carlos Gomez: The other OF prospect in the Mets organization saw significant time in the majors last year, and although he had a statistically poor stint he did show off his physical tools, and demonstrated why he is regarded as one of the Mets top prospects. Right now Gomez would be a defensive upgrade for any team in the league, and that slick defense along with his unbelievable speed would make him a capable major league OF currently despite his lack of offense. However Gomez is only 22 and he is still developing as a hitter. He has quick hands and a strong, at time viscous, swing that translate to power down the road. However currently he has a tendency to pull the ball too much, and until he can develop an ability to go the other way he will be overmatched offensively at the major league level. Gomez upside ranges but a reasonable prediction would have him at about a .280 hitter with 20- 25 HR power, and depending on where he bats around 90 RBIs, ETA- Mid 2008

Deolis Guerra: Like Martinez, Guerra was only 18 last year, so much of his hype is based off his upside. He spent last year at High A- ball St. Lucie, and despite only winning 2 games last year and having a 4.01 ERA he had a very good WHIP of 1.17 which was among the best in the Florida State League last year. Guerra's fastball sits in the low to mid 90s, and he has a very advanced change- up to go with it. The rest of his arsenal is lacking but as a 19 year old at AA Binghampton next year he will have plenty of time to develop his pitches. Guerra is so young and raw it is hard to predict what his numbers might look like, but he probably projects as a #2 starter at best, ETA- 2010.

Kevin Mulvey: The first Mets pick in the 2006 draft has turned out to be a good one. In his first full year in the organization last year he pitched extremely well at AA Binghampton and was among the top five pitchers in nearly every statistical category in the Eastern league last year. He also had a nice stint in AAA at the end of last year. Mulvey will be 22 going on 23 and although he will most likely be in AAA next year he will have a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation. Mulvey projects as a 3rd starter, but his command over all of the pitches in his arsenal may make him the safest bet of any pitcher in the mets organization. Mulvey projects to be a pitcher with a mid 3s ERA and 10- 15 win potential, ETA- 2008.

Philip Humber: Almost an after thought in the Mets organization, Humber lost a year of development to Tommy John surgery, but was probably the teams best minor league pitcher last year. In a traditionally hitter's league Humber was the best pitcher in the PCL leading the league in WHIP and among the league leaders in SO not to mention the near no hitter he threw late in the season. The thing that makes Humber unique is that his best pitch is not his fastball, but his curveball. When Humber is can command his curveball it is a devastating pitch, but on the contrary when he struggles with it he is going to be very hittable. Humber still has a lot of upside but he is probably at best a #4 pitcher, but like Mulvey he will have a shot this spring to make the rotation, ETA- 2008.


Although those are the five players most commonly associated with the trade for Santana, there is still a chance that one of these three major leaguers could be included as well.

Aaron Heilman: With the departure of Joe Nathan likely the Twins are definately in need of another bullpen arm/ candidate for the closer role. Heilman would fit a need for them, and could likely keep us from having to trade all five prospects.

Ryan Church: We have heard all along that the Twins want major league ready players. Although there is really no upside left with Church he is an underrated OF who is especially strong against RHP.

Mike Pelfrey: Looking at comments of Twins fans, they seem to be higher on Pelfrey than they are on Humber or Mulvey. Unless the Mets have deemed him untouchable, he is likely to at least be mentioned. (I still feel that Pelfrey has a ton of Upside but I'm not sure he will ever regain the ability he demonstrated last spring when he won the 5th starters spot easily).


Using those eight players here are three trade proposals that I think are fair for both teams:

1. Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Heilman
2. Ryan Church, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Heilman
3. Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Aaron Heilman

(Nothing Against Mike Pelfrey or Aaron Heilman, I just noticed that the Twins fans were very high on both of them)