The Price of Pitching

It has been well documented that this year's class of FA pitching is excessively weak. However the availibility of quality pitching, may be at its highest. With a surplus of FA pitchers next off- season, many teams are looking to deal their, "one year pitchers" before they become unaffordable. Other teams see the weak pitching market as a way to force teams to overpay, via trade, for quality arms. So all in all pitching may not be as hard to come by as many anticipated, but rather, just a bit more costly.

Here are some names that have been circulated thus far:

Johan Santana
Erik Bedard
Tim Lincecum
Dontrelle Willis
AJ Burnett
Scott Kazmir
The Oakland A's Rotation
Anyone on the White Sox not named Mark Buehrle
... and I'm sure there will be more to come

The Costs:

Two time AL Cy Young winner Santana will undoubtedly garner the most in a trade, it has been speculated that a Package of Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and James Loney from the Dosgers may not even be enough to bring in Santana, and those are three top flight prospects. Essentially it is going to take a proven, young, player to get Santana, which would be like Jose Reyes from the Mets, Robinson Cano from the Yankees, or Chris Young from the Diamondbacks, and it would make no sense for any of those teams to part with their budding superstars. In my opinion Santana will remain in Minnesota due just to his price, although the waters will be tested by many teams. Bedard is the sleeper here in my opinion. He has put up ace numbers the past two years, and at 28, is a bonefied ace for any team in this league except for the Twins, and maybe the Indians. I also believe that because he is being overshadowed by the more glamorous Santana, and the younger Lincecum and Kazmir, that he may also come at the most reasonable price. A combination of Carlos Gomez and Mike Pelfrey could be enough to land Bedard, maybe Aaron Heilman or Philip Humber would have to be added as well. Lincecum and Kazmir will be big names on the Market due to their age and potential, but for those same reasons will come at a greater price than their worth. They are going to command similar, if not better packages than Bedard would, even though they are not at his level yet. In the end I see Kazmir, and the three years left on his contract remaining in Tampa Bay, but I actually see Lincecum joining him in Tampa in exchange for Carl Crawford. Two years ago I would've included Willis in the same conversation as Lincecum and Kazmir, but his stock has absolutely plummeted. And although the Marlins are looking like they are ready for a mini fire- sale, I don't think Loria will get the offer he is hoping to for Dontrelle, and in the end will trade Miguel Cabrera to get the prospects he desires. Billy Beane is always open to trades, but the only pitcher who has any chance to get traded from that team is Joe Blanton. Something tells me Beane will hold on to Haren, and although Harden has ace ability he is too injury prone, he's needs a healthy year before any team will be willing to give up the pieces that Beane would want in return. Burnett and the White Sox rotation, will basically be Plan B for teams that don't get their first choice. Of all of those pitchers Javier Vasquez has the best chance to be traded, because he is an innings eater who doesn't have an injury history. Burnett has the ability to make him more valuable than a Plan B, but he is too injury prone for a team to rely on.

In the end here's where they'll end up:

Johan Santana- Twins
Erik Bedard- Mets for Carlos Gomez Mike Pelfrey and either Heilman or Humber
Lincecum- Devil Rays for Carl Crawford
Kazmir- Devil Rays
Willis- Marlins
AJ Burnett- Blue Jays
Joe Blanton- Will be a Met if they don't get Bedard, for Gomez and Heilman
Harden & Haren- A's
White Sox Pitchers- Will be White Sox pitchers next year

In the end the FA class of 2009 will loom over the trade market this winter, with most teams deciding to wait, but the Crawford for Lincecum swap is a match made in heaven, and after the way this year ended for the Mets there is no way that Omar Minaya won't make a move for a pitcher this winter, and expect it to happen sooner than later.