I have heard this rumor several times previously, that the Twins are interested in getting a young center fielder to replace the departed Torri Hunter. However there is now a significant twist to this rumor, that the Twins are willing to part with Matt Garza to get their new center fielder. Some of the names that have been circulated are Delmon Young and BJ Upton from the Devil Rays, and Carlos Gomez from the Mets. As a Met fan I would make a Garza for Gomez trade in a heart beat, although a B level prospect may need to be included as well. Although I see Gomez turning into a fine ML OF I see a slightly better one, Lastings Milledge, ahead of him, and a much better one, Fernando Martinez, two years behind him. With Carlos Beltran and his Gold Glove defense in Center Field, there only remains two more spots in the OF for the Mets, and unfortunately I see Gomez as the odd man out. If I was in the Devil Ray's shoes I would make that trade with Upton in a heart beat as well, but I would be much more reluctant to trade Young who I believe will turn into a perennial All Star. Instead I would make a trade involving Crawford, like i noted in my last post, or would ask for more than just Garza in return, with the former being the better option in my opinion.
More to come as more news becomes availible...
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
A- Rod or Miggy?
Although the season ended about two weeks ago, the off season really doesn't kick into gear until the GM meetings start. With two days in the books now, it is safe to say that the off season has offically begun. Day one brought us the mandatory A- Rod report, but day two is when the rumors really got good. A- Rod may be the best offensive third baseman, his stock may just have taken a big hit as the second best offensive third baseman just became availible, Miguel Cabrera. Of course "Miggy" is no A- Rod, but at only 24, he is almost as valuable. Cabrera still has three years remaining before he is eligible for free agency, and while his defense is atrocious, he is probably better suited for left field or first base, his 35+ homerun power and his .320 BA as a 24 year old is hard to come by. Despite being relatively cheap financially, he's going to garner a similar package of prospects as Johan Santana will. It has been reported that the Dodgers, Angels, and Yankees all have high interest in acquiring Cabrera, bad news for A- Rod who expected large offers from at least two of these teams. Basically Loria has made it clear that he wants a blue chip prospect, preferably a pitcher, and then some in return for Miggy. This would include Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers, Joba Chamberlain or Philip Hughes from the Yankees, and some one like Howie Kendrick or Brandon Wood, a SS who would probably move to third base, From the Angels. The and then some would be a James Loney Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier from the Dodgers, Ian Kenedy or Melky Cabrera from the Yankees, and a package of B level prospects from the Angels that would probably include catcher Jeff Mathis. Although the Angels would really like Cabrera, they are not going to move Howie Kendrick, and the Yankees have stated that they have no intention of trading any of their young pitchers. Without Kendrick the deal would be a tough one to make for the Angels, and the conversation begins and ends with Hughes and Chamberlain for the Yankees. This leaves LA who has to decide whether to pony up the big bucks for A- Rod, or the prospects for Miggy. In the end I think they make the right decision and trade Kershaw and Kemp for Cabrera.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
The Price of Pitching
It has been well documented that this year's class of FA pitching is excessively weak. However the availibility of quality pitching, may be at its highest. With a surplus of FA pitchers next off- season, many teams are looking to deal their, "one year pitchers" before they become unaffordable. Other teams see the weak pitching market as a way to force teams to overpay, via trade, for quality arms. So all in all pitching may not be as hard to come by as many anticipated, but rather, just a bit more costly.
Here are some names that have been circulated thus far:
Johan Santana
Erik Bedard
Tim Lincecum
Dontrelle Willis
AJ Burnett
Scott Kazmir
The Oakland A's Rotation
Anyone on the White Sox not named Mark Buehrle
... and I'm sure there will be more to come
The Costs:
Two time AL Cy Young winner Santana will undoubtedly garner the most in a trade, it has been speculated that a Package of Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and James Loney from the Dosgers may not even be enough to bring in Santana, and those are three top flight prospects. Essentially it is going to take a proven, young, player to get Santana, which would be like Jose Reyes from the Mets, Robinson Cano from the Yankees, or Chris Young from the Diamondbacks, and it would make no sense for any of those teams to part with their budding superstars. In my opinion Santana will remain in Minnesota due just to his price, although the waters will be tested by many teams. Bedard is the sleeper here in my opinion. He has put up ace numbers the past two years, and at 28, is a bonefied ace for any team in this league except for the Twins, and maybe the Indians. I also believe that because he is being overshadowed by the more glamorous Santana, and the younger Lincecum and Kazmir, that he may also come at the most reasonable price. A combination of Carlos Gomez and Mike Pelfrey could be enough to land Bedard, maybe Aaron Heilman or Philip Humber would have to be added as well. Lincecum and Kazmir will be big names on the Market due to their age and potential, but for those same reasons will come at a greater price than their worth. They are going to command similar, if not better packages than Bedard would, even though they are not at his level yet. In the end I see Kazmir, and the three years left on his contract remaining in Tampa Bay, but I actually see Lincecum joining him in Tampa in exchange for Carl Crawford. Two years ago I would've included Willis in the same conversation as Lincecum and Kazmir, but his stock has absolutely plummeted. And although the Marlins are looking like they are ready for a mini fire- sale, I don't think Loria will get the offer he is hoping to for Dontrelle, and in the end will trade Miguel Cabrera to get the prospects he desires. Billy Beane is always open to trades, but the only pitcher who has any chance to get traded from that team is Joe Blanton. Something tells me Beane will hold on to Haren, and although Harden has ace ability he is too injury prone, he's needs a healthy year before any team will be willing to give up the pieces that Beane would want in return. Burnett and the White Sox rotation, will basically be Plan B for teams that don't get their first choice. Of all of those pitchers Javier Vasquez has the best chance to be traded, because he is an innings eater who doesn't have an injury history. Burnett has the ability to make him more valuable than a Plan B, but he is too injury prone for a team to rely on.
In the end here's where they'll end up:
Johan Santana- Twins
Erik Bedard- Mets for Carlos Gomez Mike Pelfrey and either Heilman or Humber
Lincecum- Devil Rays for Carl Crawford
Kazmir- Devil Rays
Willis- Marlins
AJ Burnett- Blue Jays
Joe Blanton- Will be a Met if they don't get Bedard, for Gomez and Heilman
Harden & Haren- A's
White Sox Pitchers- Will be White Sox pitchers next year
In the end the FA class of 2009 will loom over the trade market this winter, with most teams deciding to wait, but the Crawford for Lincecum swap is a match made in heaven, and after the way this year ended for the Mets there is no way that Omar Minaya won't make a move for a pitcher this winter, and expect it to happen sooner than later.
Here are some names that have been circulated thus far:
Johan Santana
Erik Bedard
Tim Lincecum
Dontrelle Willis
AJ Burnett
Scott Kazmir
The Oakland A's Rotation
Anyone on the White Sox not named Mark Buehrle
... and I'm sure there will be more to come
The Costs:
Two time AL Cy Young winner Santana will undoubtedly garner the most in a trade, it has been speculated that a Package of Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and James Loney from the Dosgers may not even be enough to bring in Santana, and those are three top flight prospects. Essentially it is going to take a proven, young, player to get Santana, which would be like Jose Reyes from the Mets, Robinson Cano from the Yankees, or Chris Young from the Diamondbacks, and it would make no sense for any of those teams to part with their budding superstars. In my opinion Santana will remain in Minnesota due just to his price, although the waters will be tested by many teams. Bedard is the sleeper here in my opinion. He has put up ace numbers the past two years, and at 28, is a bonefied ace for any team in this league except for the Twins, and maybe the Indians. I also believe that because he is being overshadowed by the more glamorous Santana, and the younger Lincecum and Kazmir, that he may also come at the most reasonable price. A combination of Carlos Gomez and Mike Pelfrey could be enough to land Bedard, maybe Aaron Heilman or Philip Humber would have to be added as well. Lincecum and Kazmir will be big names on the Market due to their age and potential, but for those same reasons will come at a greater price than their worth. They are going to command similar, if not better packages than Bedard would, even though they are not at his level yet. In the end I see Kazmir, and the three years left on his contract remaining in Tampa Bay, but I actually see Lincecum joining him in Tampa in exchange for Carl Crawford. Two years ago I would've included Willis in the same conversation as Lincecum and Kazmir, but his stock has absolutely plummeted. And although the Marlins are looking like they are ready for a mini fire- sale, I don't think Loria will get the offer he is hoping to for Dontrelle, and in the end will trade Miguel Cabrera to get the prospects he desires. Billy Beane is always open to trades, but the only pitcher who has any chance to get traded from that team is Joe Blanton. Something tells me Beane will hold on to Haren, and although Harden has ace ability he is too injury prone, he's needs a healthy year before any team will be willing to give up the pieces that Beane would want in return. Burnett and the White Sox rotation, will basically be Plan B for teams that don't get their first choice. Of all of those pitchers Javier Vasquez has the best chance to be traded, because he is an innings eater who doesn't have an injury history. Burnett has the ability to make him more valuable than a Plan B, but he is too injury prone for a team to rely on.
In the end here's where they'll end up:
Johan Santana- Twins
Erik Bedard- Mets for Carlos Gomez Mike Pelfrey and either Heilman or Humber
Lincecum- Devil Rays for Carl Crawford
Kazmir- Devil Rays
Willis- Marlins
AJ Burnett- Blue Jays
Joe Blanton- Will be a Met if they don't get Bedard, for Gomez and Heilman
Harden & Haren- A's
White Sox Pitchers- Will be White Sox pitchers next year
In the end the FA class of 2009 will loom over the trade market this winter, with most teams deciding to wait, but the Crawford for Lincecum swap is a match made in heaven, and after the way this year ended for the Mets there is no way that Omar Minaya won't make a move for a pitcher this winter, and expect it to happen sooner than later.
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