Next Year

Look Milledge is gone, and unfortunately so is any shot of making a trade for a legit ace, but after reviewing our situation for the short term I honestly feel that we are actually in a good position to win the NL next year. Assuming Omar doesn't blow the rest of our future for a middle of the rotation starter, we still have a number of prospects who will factor into our success this year, and for many years after that. So taking all of that into account I feel as if it is the best interest of the Mets to stand pat and do nothing from now until spring training. If that does happen we are probably looking at the most balanced team in the NL next year. It is very likely that we will have our pitching staff among the league's top 5, and an offense in the league's top 10. One thing Omar has done well this off season, is to return a very successful bench from last year, and to strengthen the bullpen via addition by subtraction (Mota). All reports so far have pegged Sanchez and Juan Padilla to be on track in their recoveries, hopefully allowing them to be major contributors to a relatively shaky bullpen. If it turns out that those two, especially Sanchez, are not on track to be on the opening day roster Omar will most likely make a drastic move to acquire another Bullpen force. Assuming, however, that they are healthy this is what I project the Mets to look like next year.

Note: These are not a ZIPS or any other type of projection, but rather the thoughts of a random person who is assuming that there is no drastic progression or degression from the expected norm of any the players.


Mets Lineup AVG OBP HR RBI SB
J. Reyes .305 .385 15 62 65
L. Castillo .285 .368 2 40 15
D. Wright .333 .401 32 125 30
C Beltran .275 .377 35 110 15
M. Alou .305 .365 23 82 0
C. Delgado .265 .355 26 90 1
R. Church .283 .361 21 79 3
B. Schneider .249 .321 3 30 0


Rotation W L ERA K WHIP
P. Martinez 14 7 3.21 198 1.09
J. Maine 17 10 3.35 170 1.13
0. Perez 14 9 3.42 220 1.11
O. Hernandez 8 5 3.88 140 1.35
M. Pelfrey 9 8 4.11 150 1.31

Bullpen S ERA WHIP W L
B. Wagner 40 2.21 1.01 3 3
A. Heilman 3 3.36 1.21 5 6
D. Sanchez 0 3.21 1.08 4 2
P. Feliciano 0 2.82 1.11 2 3
J. Padilla 0 3.53 1.22 2 2
S. Schowenweis 0 4.21 1.43 2 2
P. Humber 0 3.81 1.19 5 3

Bench AVG OBP HR RBI SB
E. Chavez .301 .375 2 27 11
D. Easley .275 .351 9 31 2
M. Anderson .285 .355 6 35 1
R. Castro .271 .341 11 32 0
R. Gotay .321 .372 5 39 4

Other Contributors AVG OBP HR RBI SB
C. Gomez .262 .348 8 27 18

Other Contributors W L ERA K WHIP
K. Mulvey 3 2 .389 45 1.21

Other Contributors S ERA WHIP W L
E. Kunz 0 4.01 1.31 1 1
J. Smith 0 3.22 1.18 2 1
B. Rustich 0 2.88 .98 2 0

Offensively the only major differences from last year are Reyes' increase in offensive production, and decrease in stolen bases, to what is hopefully a more successful combination of the two. Castillo will probably have a similar season to what he did for the Mets last year, with his main goal being to guide Jose into scoring position for the heart of the order. Take away David's atrocious start from last year and these are the numbers you are probably looking at for him to put up. Beltran has been pretty consistent in his past two years as Met, so it would be a relatively large shock to me if he put up draastically different numbers. I have Alou pegged to play roughly 100 games this year, and if he does so these would be pretty much the same numbers as last year with a slight dip in average. It is hard to do much worse than what Carlos Delgado did last year, so I am expecting (hoping) that he may not struggle as much, but I don't expect to see anything close to the production we got from him in 2006. Ryan Church is interesting, because considering what he did in an even more pitcher friendly park than shea in a part time role last year, I can see him having a very productive year for the Mets, and probably putting up better numbers than Lastings would this year. Schneider on the other hand will be awful offensively this year, but as long as he can keep runners out of scoring position I could care less about how well he hits.

Although it was a very small sample size Pedro looked like an ace again when he pitched last September. Although a sub 3 ERA is not out of the question for him, a low 3s is a more conservative prediction, and ultimately is perfectly fine with me. Maine put up a sub 3 ERA for half of the season last year, and while I don't think he will do that again I also don't think he will struggle the way he did for most of the second half. Ollie last year had flashes of brilliance, but also displayed an uncanny ability to absolutely lose it on some occasions. Through it all, however, it became pretty apparent that when he listened to Rick Peterson and kept his arm slot consistent, he was generally one of the better pitchers in the national league. Although I think he will be more consistent this year it is hard to imagine a season without a couple of Ollie meltdowns. El Duque was one of the strongest pitchers in the Mets rotation last year, until he got hurt. Unfortunately I don't think he will replicate his successful season from last year, and it is probably pretty safe to bet that he injures himself sometime next year. Mike Pelfrey showed the entire grape fruit league why he was considered one of the top pitching prospects last year, but then failed to capitalize on that success throughout most of the regular season. He did, however, have a phenomenal game against the braves last year, and a decent enough second stint to prove to me that he still has potential, and hopefully he can achieve it if he is given an entire season in the majors.

The Bullpen essentially comes down to health, a healthy Sanchez and Padilla means success for the Mets, if not the bullpen is "iffy" at best. I do think that Humber if given the chance to be a long man will pitch surprisingly well, because most teams are not used to seeing the type of stuff humber has come out of the bullpen. Whether or not he will be a successful starter is still in question.

The bench will be almost identical to last year, and it is fairly hard to imagine that they won't replicate the success they had, but if for some reason they don't, they will still be one of the better benches in baseball.

Carlos Gomez will most likely be playing the role of Lastings Milledge this year, and will get most of the playing time when Moises Alou inevitably goes down for an extended period of time. My feeling is that Gomez will begin to grow into his body, and while we will not see a drastic increase in his average, we will begin to see his power numbers begin to surge, as well as a greater base stealing ability that he displayed last year. Kevin Mulvey will probably be the player who fills in for El Duque when he inevitably goes down, and will display why he is the best pitcher of the "big three" (Pelfrey Humber Mulvey) until he gets sent back down once Duque is healthy. In all honesty I think that over a season on work Pelfrey will probably put up the better numbers due to experience, but over a short time period Mulvey will be successful due to his better repotoire.

Finally we have Joe Smith who will spend nearly the entire year on the triple a to the majors shuttle. I willy uses Smith correctly, and does not overwork him as he did early last year, I think that Smith can be very successful. I also think Eddie Kunz will get a few oppurtunities to show himself in the majors, but will not yet be ready. Brant Rustich is my "sleeper" although he won't get to pitch a whole season in the majors. Rustich did no wrong last year in the minors, and from what I understand he would probably have been a higher rated prospect coming out of college had it not been for an injury. Whether he turns out to be a reliever or a starter I feel that he will be the surprise of the season for the Mets.

Based on these projections I have the Mets winning about 93 games next year, which is certainly enough to make the playoffs, and most likely enough to win the NL East.

Matt Garza...

I have heard this rumor several times previously, that the Twins are interested in getting a young center fielder to replace the departed Torri Hunter. However there is now a significant twist to this rumor, that the Twins are willing to part with Matt Garza to get their new center fielder. Some of the names that have been circulated are Delmon Young and BJ Upton from the Devil Rays, and Carlos Gomez from the Mets. As a Met fan I would make a Garza for Gomez trade in a heart beat, although a B level prospect may need to be included as well. Although I see Gomez turning into a fine ML OF I see a slightly better one, Lastings Milledge, ahead of him, and a much better one, Fernando Martinez, two years behind him. With Carlos Beltran and his Gold Glove defense in Center Field, there only remains two more spots in the OF for the Mets, and unfortunately I see Gomez as the odd man out. If I was in the Devil Ray's shoes I would make that trade with Upton in a heart beat as well, but I would be much more reluctant to trade Young who I believe will turn into a perennial All Star. Instead I would make a trade involving Crawford, like i noted in my last post, or would ask for more than just Garza in return, with the former being the better option in my opinion.

More to come as more news becomes availible...

A- Rod or Miggy?

Although the season ended about two weeks ago, the off season really doesn't kick into gear until the GM meetings start. With two days in the books now, it is safe to say that the off season has offically begun. Day one brought us the mandatory A- Rod report, but day two is when the rumors really got good. A- Rod may be the best offensive third baseman, his stock may just have taken a big hit as the second best offensive third baseman just became availible, Miguel Cabrera. Of course "Miggy" is no A- Rod, but at only 24, he is almost as valuable. Cabrera still has three years remaining before he is eligible for free agency, and while his defense is atrocious, he is probably better suited for left field or first base, his 35+ homerun power and his .320 BA as a 24 year old is hard to come by. Despite being relatively cheap financially, he's going to garner a similar package of prospects as Johan Santana will. It has been reported that the Dodgers, Angels, and Yankees all have high interest in acquiring Cabrera, bad news for A- Rod who expected large offers from at least two of these teams. Basically Loria has made it clear that he wants a blue chip prospect, preferably a pitcher, and then some in return for Miggy. This would include Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers, Joba Chamberlain or Philip Hughes from the Yankees, and some one like Howie Kendrick or Brandon Wood, a SS who would probably move to third base, From the Angels. The and then some would be a James Loney Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier from the Dodgers, Ian Kenedy or Melky Cabrera from the Yankees, and a package of B level prospects from the Angels that would probably include catcher Jeff Mathis. Although the Angels would really like Cabrera, they are not going to move Howie Kendrick, and the Yankees have stated that they have no intention of trading any of their young pitchers. Without Kendrick the deal would be a tough one to make for the Angels, and the conversation begins and ends with Hughes and Chamberlain for the Yankees. This leaves LA who has to decide whether to pony up the big bucks for A- Rod, or the prospects for Miggy. In the end I think they make the right decision and trade Kershaw and Kemp for Cabrera.

The Price of Pitching

It has been well documented that this year's class of FA pitching is excessively weak. However the availibility of quality pitching, may be at its highest. With a surplus of FA pitchers next off- season, many teams are looking to deal their, "one year pitchers" before they become unaffordable. Other teams see the weak pitching market as a way to force teams to overpay, via trade, for quality arms. So all in all pitching may not be as hard to come by as many anticipated, but rather, just a bit more costly.

Here are some names that have been circulated thus far:

Johan Santana
Erik Bedard
Tim Lincecum
Dontrelle Willis
AJ Burnett
Scott Kazmir
The Oakland A's Rotation
Anyone on the White Sox not named Mark Buehrle
... and I'm sure there will be more to come

The Costs:

Two time AL Cy Young winner Santana will undoubtedly garner the most in a trade, it has been speculated that a Package of Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and James Loney from the Dosgers may not even be enough to bring in Santana, and those are three top flight prospects. Essentially it is going to take a proven, young, player to get Santana, which would be like Jose Reyes from the Mets, Robinson Cano from the Yankees, or Chris Young from the Diamondbacks, and it would make no sense for any of those teams to part with their budding superstars. In my opinion Santana will remain in Minnesota due just to his price, although the waters will be tested by many teams. Bedard is the sleeper here in my opinion. He has put up ace numbers the past two years, and at 28, is a bonefied ace for any team in this league except for the Twins, and maybe the Indians. I also believe that because he is being overshadowed by the more glamorous Santana, and the younger Lincecum and Kazmir, that he may also come at the most reasonable price. A combination of Carlos Gomez and Mike Pelfrey could be enough to land Bedard, maybe Aaron Heilman or Philip Humber would have to be added as well. Lincecum and Kazmir will be big names on the Market due to their age and potential, but for those same reasons will come at a greater price than their worth. They are going to command similar, if not better packages than Bedard would, even though they are not at his level yet. In the end I see Kazmir, and the three years left on his contract remaining in Tampa Bay, but I actually see Lincecum joining him in Tampa in exchange for Carl Crawford. Two years ago I would've included Willis in the same conversation as Lincecum and Kazmir, but his stock has absolutely plummeted. And although the Marlins are looking like they are ready for a mini fire- sale, I don't think Loria will get the offer he is hoping to for Dontrelle, and in the end will trade Miguel Cabrera to get the prospects he desires. Billy Beane is always open to trades, but the only pitcher who has any chance to get traded from that team is Joe Blanton. Something tells me Beane will hold on to Haren, and although Harden has ace ability he is too injury prone, he's needs a healthy year before any team will be willing to give up the pieces that Beane would want in return. Burnett and the White Sox rotation, will basically be Plan B for teams that don't get their first choice. Of all of those pitchers Javier Vasquez has the best chance to be traded, because he is an innings eater who doesn't have an injury history. Burnett has the ability to make him more valuable than a Plan B, but he is too injury prone for a team to rely on.

In the end here's where they'll end up:

Johan Santana- Twins
Erik Bedard- Mets for Carlos Gomez Mike Pelfrey and either Heilman or Humber
Lincecum- Devil Rays for Carl Crawford
Kazmir- Devil Rays
Willis- Marlins
AJ Burnett- Blue Jays
Joe Blanton- Will be a Met if they don't get Bedard, for Gomez and Heilman
Harden & Haren- A's
White Sox Pitchers- Will be White Sox pitchers next year

In the end the FA class of 2009 will loom over the trade market this winter, with most teams deciding to wait, but the Crawford for Lincecum swap is a match made in heaven, and after the way this year ended for the Mets there is no way that Omar Minaya won't make a move for a pitcher this winter, and expect it to happen sooner than later.